A very stable or cooling trend has developed in global temperatures for about a decade, in spite of CO2 levels continuing to rise. This winter has been mild on the West Coast USA, so far, but the rest of the Northern Hemisphere has been plunged into an ice-box. If the measure of a theory is its ability to predict events or things, then one must question the CO2-theory of global warming, for the very fact that no warming has factually proceeded in a manner which reflects the slow and constant rise of CO2 levels. Not now, and not in the most recent or ancient past either.
One of the most recent and telling studies on this was done by the CO2-warming advocates themselves. In a short Supplement paper titled "Do global temperature trends over the last decade falsify climate predictions?" by J. Knight, et al (Bul. Am. Met. Soc., Aug. 2009, page S22-S23) the authors presented a temperature data graph clearly showing a flattening of temperature over the last decade. The graphic is reproduce here, showing two temperature lines. The upper two grey and blue temperature lines are the actual measurement variations (anomaly) from combined land and oceans data, as compared to 1961 to 1990 climatological averages. The upper grey line is the actual combined land-sea data, while the upper blue line indicates the same data minus the effects of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — a well known and powerful thermal-warming anomaly in the central Pacific Ocean which affects weather globally. The lower blue temperature line is the ENSO itself, offset by -0.5 degrees to make it visible. These graphs indicate a leveling-out of land-sea temperature trends over the last decade, and the powerful effect of the ENSO upon the land-sea temperature data overall — most notably the strong El-Nino events of 1987-88 and 1998. But there also is a lot missing from this graphic, which in spite of theoretical arguments does validate the current period of temperature stabilization in the absence of the ENSO, a natural climatic event which has been traced as far back as c.4000 BC.
Of course, this paper came from the same Hadley-CRU unit in the UK which is today caught up in a scandal of accusations that they have been fudging their figures, and also back-stabbing and censoring their critics. So the overall trend towards higher temperatures even with ENSO subtracted, gives one legitimate reasons for skepticism. Not surprisingly, the paper concluded that global warming WILL continue in spite of the obvious flattening or cooling of the temperature data for recent years. Interestingly, the UK Met office posted a summary of the paper which can be downloaded from internet:
Of course, the data did not support the Hadley-CRU predictions from c.2000, that more heating would continue and the world would roast. Temperatures stabilized and in fact, starting around 2008, global temperatures and the Northern Hemisphere in particular began to significantly chill down. America, Europe and Asia were plunged into a dramatic deep-freeze (as documented below) starting shortly after this 2009 paper with the temperature graph was published. You will note on the upper part of the graph how the 2008-2009 Northern Hemisphere winter period showed a steep decline towards the zero line. The 2009-2010 winter, not plotted on the graph, will show something similarly chilly once the global data are evaluated. Winters in the Southern Hemisphere tend to be more moderate by all measures, given the greater influence of the larger southern oceans.
But lets speak more generally about the temperature trends. Global temperatures also cooled for the period c.1940-1975, deliberately not shown on this Hadley-CRU data curve, with other short-term periods of cooling, irrespective of the El Nino signals. Overall, the two major trends are:
1. The Earth’s overall temperature has been slowly recovering — warming — over the last several hundred years from the cold conditions of the Little Ice Age (LIA), which was at its most cold and chilly in the 1700s, and ended only around 1850. That’s why nearly all the graphs of global temperature show a steady increase since that time, and why some mountain glaciers (but not all) which expanded dramatically during the LIA continue to slowly melt back today. And that is also why the CO2-deceivers will always show graphs of global temperatures starting only after the LIA, so as to dramatically inflame people’s fears about global warming, and to blame the Evil Capitalist West and the Industrial Revolution (which began in earnest only in the early 1800s) for the warming. But before the LIA there was the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), which was warmer than today, with even smaller Alpine glaciers, and a lot less Arctic floating and coastal-ice, with far fewer icebergs and calmer North Atlantic seas — allowing the Vikings to sail out in their low-draft long-boats to establish colonies on Iceland and SW Greenland, and for vineyards to flourish in higher latitudes which today would be too chilly for grapes and such, and without significant sea-level rise or problems with polar bear or penguin populations. Those Arctic species are doing better today than they were 50 years ago, due to continued wildlife protections. What problems have come for polar wildlife has more to do with human hunting and loss of wild-land habitat, than to climate changes or ice abundance. In short, "old-fashioned" environmental issues need a re-emphasis, not the new hocus-pocus of CO2 fabrications and hysteria.
2. The El Nino Southern Oscillation, which has been episodic since thousands of years ago, creates warm temperatures in the Pacific without any human agency, and this has a powerful effect upon global temperatures, as noted above in the graphic. The ENSO has the strongest correlations to the periods of greatest global temperature rise over the period of record. The peak temperatures of the 20th Century were either during the 1930s and in the late 1990s, times of powerful El Nino episodes. So whatever is driving the longer-term climate cycles which gave us the MWP and LIA, there is an additional factor which gives us the ENSO. All of it affects global temperature, and this does not even begin to address the issue of what created the major Ice Ages and the Interglacial Periods, of which human beings have enjoyed since c.10,000 BC. Ocean temperatures have a powerful effect upon air temperatures, affecting atmospheric humidity and cloud cover most dramatically, far more than the natural trace-gas CO2, which the oceans, volcanoes and even plow agriculture releases into the atmosphere at levels far greater than what is created by burning of fossil fuels.
Anyone with even a short memory will recall how the CO2 fanatics denied and denied any cooling was taking place at all until just most recently, when they had a hard time explaining the icicles hanging from everyone’s noses. Everyone also witnessed the remarkable fact that nearly every "Global Warming Conference" on the planet was greeted with blizzards and snowstorms right outside the conference halls. Some major "protests against global warming" were also cut short as the protestors shivered in unexpected early-season sub-zero snows. (I suspect, they will henceforth be holding such meetings during summertime.)
That’s the overall pattern, and events over the last several months have confirmed the cooling quite dramatically. Events have also clarified the combined Socialist and Wall Street schemes, to rob the middle-class workers, as totalitarians of every political persuasion pounded the podiums at Copenhagen, demanding more of your money to line their pockets. The curtains were also finally drawn back with exposures of concealed emails between the main scientists who were driving the CO2 theory along, and who not accidentally have received billions in funding to push their agendas, even while their critics were subjected to smears and censorship. Not only have we seen the scandal of academic lying by the CO2-fanatics, exposing their push to manufacture fraudulent data supporting their pet theory (better known as "climate-gate"), but also new revelations are now out, supporting the long-made charges of CO2 critics, of how they were victims of character assassinations, back-stabbing and censorship to silence their voices. CO2 fanatics, as documented below, have been busy, busy bees, even going around to "correct" internet sites and Wikipedia pages by the hundreds, to erase the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Ages from history, so as to blame the modern temperature changes upon something other than natural cycles.
Below I list a number of news items exposing these themes, which most readers may not have seen, with very brief notes.
Nature as always will have the last word on the subject.
James DeMeo, PhD*
First, here are several very good on-line videos or reports about the situation, by some of Americas best-known meteorologists and climatologists:
This one is by John Coleman, founder of the Weather Channel, and a long-time critic of the CO2 hysteria.
And this one is by Joe Bastardi, top meteorologist for Accuweather, one of the world’s leading private weather-forecasting services (you have to listen to the advertisement first), who also is a CO2-theory critic:
Worldwide Cold Not Seen since ’70s Ice Age Scare
Here’s more from/about Joe:
The former head of the National Hurricane Center also weighs in on the lying and cheating by the CO2 fanatics:
Hurricane Chief (Neil Frank): Probe Climategate
More from Frank:
Bill Grey, one of the best hurricane forecasters, also roasts the CO2 fanatics for their "unrelenting quarter century of one-sided indoctrination"
More from Grey: Climategate ‘tip of iceberg’
‘Conspiracy would become manifest’ if all climate research e-mails unveiled
The Canadians who changed the climate debate
Canadians Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick have discovered faulty calculations in some of the key scientific studies behind the reports of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Second, here is a series of articles since around Jan.1st, detailing the current 2009-2010 N.Hemisphere Winter. It is not just the USA or Europe which has gone into the freezer either, but much of Asia is also affected badly. Most people will note the cold in their own region, but maybe not know this is nearly ubiquitous in the Northern Hemisphere. I should note, here on the West Coast USA, we have unusually warm conditions, one of the few places in the Northern Hemisphere which was spared the severe cold. We do not expect this to last much longer.
The mini ice age starts here
Year off to coldest start since 1940
Seoul buried in heaviest snowfall in 70 years
Feeling cold? We’re at 30 below normal
Freeze Continues to Threaten Southern Crops
How cold is Europe? Even Norway’s buses can’t take it.
Cold snap death toll rises across Europe
All-time record snowfall in Burlington
Floridians prepare for record low temps
Midwest Sees Near-Record Lows, Snow By The Foot
Over 50% of the USA is now covered in snow
Britain braced for heaviest snowfall in 50 years
Winter of 2009-2010 Could Be Worst in 25 Years
Now that really IS the wrong type of snow on the line! It’s not just in Britain where the weather is bringing travel chaos
Siberian winds usher in record lows in Beijing
More China provinces plan power rationing (due to severe cold)
Cold weather kills scores (India)
European weather deaths pass 100
Freezing weather brings death and disruption in Germany, Italy and across eastern Europe
Peru’s mountain people face fight for survival in a bitter winter
Snowstorm squelches climate change protest
Third, as to the fraud behind the CO2 theory, the academic lying of "ClimateGate" and the Copenhagen fiasco, here are some pertinent reports which have recently emerged:
CO2-Warming Fanatics Censor Wikipedia of All Information Contrary to CO2 Theory
(another reason why nobody should reference the liars at Wikipedia or their partners-in-censorship at "RealClimate.org " for anything)
Russian Siberian Coldest Station-data Censored by liars at Hadly-CRU to fabricate phoney "warming".
North American Coldest Station-data Censored by NOAA to fabricate phoney "warming". "The thermometers in a sense marched towards the tropics, the sea and to airport tarmacs"
Researcher: NASA hiding climate data
Michael Mann, author of "Hockey Stick" under investigation
Is the Airborne Fraction of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Increasing? (Answer: NO!)
Meanwhile, the USA will Meet the Kyoto Figures, even though did not sign treaty.
Lord Christopher Monckton releases the definitive report on ClimateGate
Climategate reveals ‘the most influential tree in the world’
Leaked emails from the Climatic Research Unit show how the world’s weightiest climate data has been distorted
EPA Scientist Silenced in Coverup
50 years of cooling predicted
Rise of sea levels is ‘the greatest lie ever told’
Copenhagen climate summit: ‘most important paper in the world’ is a glorified UN press release
Obamites Happily Spending Your Money to "Save The Planet" (Not!)
Waving the Red Flag to "Save The Planet"! (Not!)
Journalists Critical of CO2-theory Banished from Copenhagen, but Hamas and Nation of Islam "reporters" are Welcomed!
Or if they manage to get in, Cops are order to shut them up:
Top Commie Thugs Denounce Capitalism at Copenhagen, but Love the CO2 Theory!
Copenhagen: Dictators Demand "Democracy"
The Financial Scam of "Cap and Trade" — why Wall Street Loves "Green" Extortion
And why top UN "Climate Official$" love it also:
The MSM is, naturally, SILENT on all the fraud and lying
Obamite Czar upset about Climategate — will "infiltrate" science and political dissenters… for what reason?
Top Dem says, Climate Whistle-Blowers should face criminal charges:
Gore Should Give Back Oscar, Two Academy Members Say
READ THEM ALL, AND PASS ALONG TO FRIENDS AND FAMILY.
* James DeMeo, PhD, formerly taught classes on Environmental, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Illinois State University, and the University of Miami. His research on ancient climates, and their influence upon human populations, is found in his book Saharasia http://www.saharasia.org, and included field work in the deserts of Northeast Africa, Southern Africa, and the American Southwest. Today he directs his own private research institute in Ashland Oregon. He became a Signator, along with hundreds of other natural scientists, to the 2008 Manhattan Declaration on Climate Change, which voiced critical points against the CO2 theory of global warming. He is now listed among over 700 prominent PhD-holding climate and environmental scientists in the United States Senate Minority Report, in public opposition to the CO2 theory of global warming. He also supported and signed the late 2009 Open Letter to President Barak Obama which appeared in major US newspapers, expressing criticism of the CO2 theory.